Methodology
Measures
What are the measures that Lumina uses for A Stronger Nation?
Credentials of Value
The share of the U.S. labor force with a post-high school credential AND earning a salary/wage 15% more than the national median for a high school graduate.
Educational Attainment
The share of the U.S. working-age population with a post-high school credential.
What level of data is available for each measure?
Credentials of Value | Educational Attainment | |
|---|---|---|
| Population | U.S. labor force including those working, looking for work, or in the military | U.S. resident population |
| Geographic scope | Nation, state | Nation, state, county, metro area |
| Time scope | 2021-2023 | 2009-2023 |
| Age groups | 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 25-64 | 25-34, 25-64 |
| Data sources | U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, Current Population Survey, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Survey of Income and Program Participation | U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, Current Population Survey, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Survey of Income and Program Participation |
Glossary
People who earned an undergraduate degree that typically takes two years to complete.
People who earned an undergraduate degree that typically takes four years to complete.
People who did not or were not able to complete school beyond grade 8.
A type of short-term credential. Certificates are earned at education programs/institutions after completion of a course or series of courses with a specific focus. They result from an educational process where the institution determines course content, often incorporating employer demand and industry standards. They are generally awarded for life and are listed under the “Education” section of a résumé.
A type of short-term credential. Awarded by a third-party, standard-setting organization. Certifications are awarded after an individual completes an assessment indicating competency within a specific, industry-wide set of standards OR meets criteria set forth by a governmental body. They generally have ongoing requirements to maintain and are listed under the “Credentials” section of a résumé.
Degrees, certificates, and certifications held by the U.S. labor force (25-64 years) that yield an annual salary/wage at least 15% more than the national median salary/wage for a high school graduate.
Includes associate, bachelor's, graduate and professional degrees.
Share of U.S. working-age population (25-64 years) who have earned graduate or professional degrees, bachelor’s degrees, and/or associate degrees. This does not include certificates or certifications. We use this term in A Stronger Nation for county, metro, and race/ethnicity data where certificate/certification estimates aren't available.
A Stronger Nation measure for examining education attainment in relation to earnings. While we recognize there are many components that make up economic prosperity, we want to measure education attainment pathways that build economic stability and foster individual fulfillment. Our starting point will be wage premiums—the additional income individuals earn with credentials compared to only a high school diploma. Specifically, our economic prosperity measure currently examines the share of the U.S. labor force with a degree, certificate, or certification who are also earning 15% more than the national median salary/wage for a high school graduate (or equivalent). As our ability to measure other value components increases our measure may expand to include such things as return on investment, non-economic benefits and community prosperity.
The share of the U.S. working-age population with a post-high school degree, certificate, or certification.
People with some high school education but did not or were not able to graduate.
People who earned an advanced post-high school degree including a master's, doctorate or professional degree.
People who graduated high school with a diploma, GED, or equivalent.
For our credentials of value data, the labor force includes civilians who are working or looking for work as well as those in the armed forces/military.
Metro-area data in A Stronger Nation are those that apply to the nation’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The term MSA refers to “a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that core.” MSAs comprise one or more entire counties, except in New England, where cities and towns are the basic geographic units. The federal Office of Management and Budget defines MSAs by applying published standards to Census Bureau data.
Previously, Lumina's national goal was to reach 60% education attainment by 2025. As we advocate for building a more holistic higher education landscape, we've established a new goal that includes a component of economic prosperity: By 2040, 75% of the U.S. labor force will have a degree, certificate, or certification and earn at least 15% more than the national median annual salary/wage of a high school graduate.
Any education credential earned after high school, including college degrees, certificates, and certifications.
This measure refers to the difference in percentage points between the race/ethnicity groups with the highest and lowest levels of degree attainment.
At the national level, data are available for more detailed groups within a race/ethnicity group. Currently, we have data for Hispanic, Asian, and Pacific Islander subpopulations, as well as American Indians and Alaska Natives.
An umbrella term for certificates and certifications.
People who enrolled in a post-high school education, but were not able to finish their credential for whatever reason, including cost, program flexibility, etc.
The national median annual salary/wage of a high school graduate or equivalent. This is our threshold for calculating credentials of value, i.e., those credentials that yield at least 15% above this benchmark.
In the context of A Stronger Nation, working-age population refers to people 25-64 years old.
FAQ
Data Sources
Data on population, educational attainment, and college enrollment are sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS), One-year Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS). To increase the sample size and improve reliability, we use multiple years of PUMS data for race/ethnicity estimates. Similarly, county-level and metro-regional data are derived from ACS five-year estimates (2005-2009 to 2019-2023).
These Census data do not include attainment values for valuable certificates or certifications. Labor market experts at Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce calculate the credentials of value measure and the share with short-term credentials for the education attainment measure using Adult Education and Training Survey (ATES), Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), The Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplements (ASEC) and The National Education and Attainment Surveys (NEAS) conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago.
Lumina Foundation, A Stronger Nation with a hyperlink to https://strongernation.luminafoundation.org
OR:
Lumina Foundation. (2025, March 4). A Stronger Nation. Indianapolis, IN: Website. https://strongernation.luminafoundation.org
We recognize there are many components that make up economic prosperity. Our aspiration is to work with the field to develop and incorporate these measures in the years to come.
Data Considerations
No. Because the credentials of value measure examines the U.S. labor force and the education attainment measure examines the U.S. resident population, the two measures should not be directly compared. They should be treated as separate datasets analyzing two different questions providing a more holistic view of higher education.
The labor force includes civilians who are working or looking for work as well as those in the military.
Education attainment includes all post-high school education, including certificates and certifications. Degree attainment includes all degrees, at the associate level or higher. We differentiate the two measures because we lack certificate and certification data at the race/ethnicity level.
For the credentials of value and education attainment measures, we have race/ethnicity data at the national and state levels, race/ethnicity and gender data at the national level, and detailed race/ethnicity data for people who are Asian, Hispanic, or American Indian/Alaska Native at the national level. For Puerto Rico state education attainment data, American Indians and Alaska Natives are excluded as a result of their “Not Applicable” designations in the ACS 1-year PUMS source data.
Subpopulation data is only included if it meets our data quality standards.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, “The Census Bureau has an obligation to produce accurate, relevant statistics about the nation’s economy and people. The data collection issues experienced by the 2020 ACS severely affected the data quality of these statistics, therefore, the Census Bureau decided not to release the standard ACS 1-year data for 2020.” As a result, we were unable to provide attainment data for 2020.
We use data from the 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico for the national averages used in both education attainment and credentials of value data.
Data for less populous states and/or states with less racial/ethnic diversity or for American Indians and Alaska Natives should be interpreted with caution. Very small sample sizes can lead to substantial margins of error in both population and educational attainment data.
Certificates, Certifications, and Degrees of Value
In 2023, 15% more than the national median annual salary/wages for a high school graduate was used as the standard threshold for degrees, certificates, and certifications of value.
The idea of connecting education attainment to various measures of economic prosperity is still quite new. Lumina is proud to be at the forefront of providing this holistic education data, but there are few easy answers for methodological approaches. In order to make comparisons easier, we chose to use a national median rather than state medians. We hope to enrich our credentials of value measure by adding state medians as an optional display in the future.
Our estimates for calculating the share of people with degrees, certificates, or certifications of value include people who have one of these credentials AND are earning at least 15% more than the national median annual salary/wages of a high school graduate. At this time, we do not collect data showing salary/wage levels regardless of education type.
Since it was launched in 2009, A Stronger Nation counted all degrees, associate and up. In 2014, Lumina added certificates earned at post-high school institutions with a labor market value of 15% over a high school degree. In 2018, advancements in federal data collections allowed for the inclusion of industry-based certification programs. Certificates and certifications are a vital part of the labor market and can lead to further education and employment.
Both are types of post-high school credentials. Certificates are earned at education programs/institutions after completion of a course or series of courses with a specific focus. Certifications are awarded by a standard-setting organization either after an individual completes an assessment of competency within a specific, industry-wide set of standards or meets criteria set forth by a governmental body.
A certificate or certification is counted as a credential of value if the holder of the certificate or certification earns at least 15% more than the national median annual salary/wages for a high school graduate. Certificates are counted as educational attainment if the holder of the certificate earns at least 15% more than the national median annual salary/wages for a high school graduate. Certifications are counted as educational attainment if the holder of the certification earns at least 10% more than the national median annual salary/wages for a high school graduate.
Lumina does not provide a list of what certificates and certifications meet the standard as it differs depending on regions of the country and the labor market.
A Stronger Nation includes certificates earned at postsecondary institutions and certifications where earners are also making above the 10-15% wage premium to ensure quality data estimates. A Stronger Nation does not include other types of short-term credentials such as massive open online courses (MOOCs), LinkedIn badges.
To meet quality standards and ensure that we are measuring credentials that lead to meaningful employment, we limit our pool of certificates to those earned at postsecondary institutions.
At the state level, the estimated percentage of residents who have earned certificates and certifications was derived by labor market experts at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce. Since a person may hold both a certificate and a certification, when certifications were added in 2018, the methodology was adjusted to avoid double counting. The resulting values were then subtracted from the ACS group “Some College, No Degree” population to credit those whose highest level of education was a certificate or certification. To learn more about Georgetown CEW’s estimation process, see their methodology.
This data comes from the working-age population (25-64 years) who make up the labor force.
Data limitations prevent us from providing estimates for specific age groups. For this reason, when displaying data for ages 25-34, we assume the percentage of certificate and certification earners is equal to those measured for ages 25-64.
The survey data used for calculating the share of certificates and certifications does not include Puerto Rico. Thus, we've used the national average as an estimate for Puerto Rico.
Our estimates for certificates and certifications come from national surveys that do not record race/ethnicity data. Our sample sizes at the county/MSA level prevent us from stratifying national data into local levels.
We estimate at a national level and allocate the shares to states rather than use states data to create counts.
Acknowledgements
Data
The data for A Stronger Nation is compiled from the following sources:
The National Education and Attainment Surveys (NEAS), conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago
Analytic partners
Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University (certificates and certifications)
EcoNW (credentials of value and attainment goal exploration)